Summer Conservative Selection

Summer Conservative Selection fund performance summary as at 31 December 2021. 

Fund at a glance

Unit price (as at 31 December 2021): $1.1205

Date the fund started: 8 April 2019

For information on fees, see our Fees page.

For more information on the Summer Conservative Selection fund read the latest quarterly fund update and the product disclosure statement. 

Fund objective and strategy

See the Summer Conservative Selection page for the Summary of investment objective and strategy.

Fund returns

 ^ Annualised

Fund returns are calculated net of fund charges, trading expenses and accrued tax for a New Zealand resident individual paying tax at the Prescribed Investor Rate identified above.

Tactical asset allocation

We have chosen the above tactical asset allocation for Summer Conservative Selection as at 8 October 2021. This can move in line with market movements and we review the portfolio and adjust asset allocation accordingly. For the current tactical asset allocation and date of most recent review, please go to the Summer Conservative Selection page.

Top 10 investments

The top 10 investments make up 37.97% of the fund.

Manager's Commentary

Market Commentary

The December quarter saw positive returns from our Australian and global equities components whilst New Zealand delivered a smaller positive return. Our exposure to listed property also delivered a positive return. The economic recovery from the depths of the pandemic continues, although volatility has risen given emergence of the Omicron variant, higher than expected inflation and central banks starting to return to neutral settings. Interest rates had been lowered to highly stimulatory levels to help offset the economic effects of the pandemic.

Fixed interest returns were hit as interest rates drifted higher, particularly late in the quarter and into the New Year. New Zealand yields pushed much higher than their global counterparts, hurting bond valuations here. In our view, New Zealand fixed interest continues to offer more attractive returns than global fixed interest, and that is reflected in the funds tactical asset allocation.

With strong returns from equity markets generally, our cash holdings dragged slightly on performance. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the cash rate to 0.75% during the quarter, but it is still below the level prevailing prior to the pandemic.

The New Zealand dollar, relevant for our portfolios with unhedged foreign currency exposures, fell modestly against both the Australian and US dollars respectively. This is despite the much stronger interest rates now available in New Zealand.

For further commentary on each of the asset classes within the Summer Conservative Selection, please refer to the commentaries for each of the relevant Summer Investment Funds single-asset class funds.

Outlook

The economic expansion continued over the December quarter, but markets were surprised by the strength and persistency of inflation reports. As a result many central banks, including New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States, are bringing forward the timelines for unwinding the emergency interest rate settings used at the height of the pandemic. 

As interest rates reset higher, fixed income returns will struggle. The average interest rate earned on the fund gradually rises through such periods as a partial offset. As such, we retain a preference for growth assets over income assets, relative to our long term target weightings between the two asset types.  Eventually higher interest rates will become a drag on the valuation of equities, and this is a key discussion point for the investment committee at each of its meetings. 

Within our exposure to fixed interest assets, in early January the investment committee increased our global fixed interest allocation, funded from lowering our domestic fixed interest allocation.  The committee did this post global bond prices falling rapidly over the prior three weeks. We retain a strong preference for domestic over global fixed interest post these moves.

Long run expectations for inflation run at just above 2% in the United States, yet their long term interest rates were around 1.5% on December 31st, implying negative real returns from fixed interest. This is unlikely to be sustainable in our view, and hence yields need to rise, and bond prices fall, further.  In New Zealand, long run expectations for inflation are also around 2%, and our long term interest rates sat at over 2.3%. As such we think domestic fixed interest offers a more attractive return for risk than its global counterpart.

As discussed in the November monthly update, we have recently reviewed our international equities offer and believe we can improve both the quality, and lower the volatility, of the fund by adding the breadth of resources and strategies of highly experienced independent global equity managers to our current in-house process. The appointment process continues and we expect to have the fund invested with the new managers during February, allocating money currently invested in two market index tracking ETFs

We are comfortable with our level of foreign currency hedging currently, with the New Zealand dollar trading slightly below our long run views against the United States dollar, but expensive against the Australian dollar.

Foreign currency exposures associated with international fixed interest are hedged to the New Zealand dollar. We actively manage the fund’s currency exposures associated with international and Australian equities, and listed property. As at 31 December 2021, these exposures represented 21.05% of the value of the fund. After allowing for foreign currency hedges in place, approximately 12.72% of the value of the fund was unhedged and exposed to foreign currency risk.