Morning report

Iran–Israel Conflict Weighs on Sentiment

Although NZ markets were closed for public holidays, global equities fell amid heightened concerns over Iran–Israel tensions and uncertainty surrounding potential international involvement. Some European and Asian markets posted modest gains.

US markets dip, Iran–Israel conflict weighs on sentiment

US markets reopened on Friday following the Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday. The DOW rose +0.1%, while the S&P 500 fell -0.2% and the NASDAQ shed -0.5%. Investors remained cautious amid escalating Iran–Israel tensions, with the White House stating that President Trump would announce a decision on potential US involvement within a fortnight—adding pressure to Tehran's negotiating stance. Iran, meanwhile, declared it would not discuss nuclear issues while under attack. The situation escalated significantly over the weekend. Federal Reserve officials noted that tariff-driven inflation could increase, contributing to market unease as interest rates were left unchanged. Tech megacaps fell on weakened sentiment, with Nvidia down -1.1%. Elsewhere, Kroger surged +9.8% after the grocer raised its full-year sales growth forecast. In fixed income, the two-year US Treasury yield fell -4bp to 3.91%, while the 10-year yield slipped -2bp to 4.38%.

European equities mixed, as European officials try prompt Tehran to negotiate  

European indices were mixed as the FTSE 100 dipped -0.2%, while the STOXX 600 added +0.1%, ending a three‑day losing streak. Geopolitical concerns eased as US involvement in Middle East tensions stalled. European officials sought to revive diplomatic engagement with Tehran, as the Iranian foreign minister arrived in Geneva for discussions. TUI rallied +6.5% after a major broker upgraded its rating to ‘overweight’. Meanwhile, Berkeley Group Holdings fell -8.1% after the homebuilder announced its chief financial officer, Richard Stearn, would assume the role of CEO—despite reporting annual pre‑tax profit ahead of expectations.

Australian equities slide as volumes stay high; Asian gains tempered by weak fiscal data

Australian equities fell for a fourth consecutive day on Friday, with the ASX 200 dipping -0.2% as winners lagged losers by a 5–to–4 ratio. Trading volumes were heavy, driven by several portfolio block trades that pushed total turnover to around A$21 billion—far ahead of the three‑month daily average of A$8 billion. Commonwealth Bank and BHP led with turnover of A$1.1 billion each, though Commonwealth Bank fell -0.2% and BHP rose +0.2%. Rio Tinto fell -1.3% and Fortescue shed -0.5% after broker downgrades and lowered target prices on iron‑ore miners. Transurban ticked up +0.4% after announcing a second‑half FY25 distribution of A$0.33 per stapled security. In Asia, equities rallied after China kept benchmark lending rates unchanged—though fiscal revenue slid -0.3% year‑to‑date to May amid global trade uncertainty. CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite both rose +0.1%, while Hang Seng gained +1.3% and Kospi added +1.5%. The Nikkei 225 dipped -0.2%. In New Zealand, markets were closed on Friday for Matariki.

Commodities mixed

WTI crude was flat at US$73.84/bbl, gold fell -0.1% to US$3,367.98/oz, and iron ore added +0.1% to US$94.77/MT.