Morning report

Will All be Fine?

Global markets were mixed on Monday, with US stocks rebounding strongly from last week’s sell-off. European shares rose on mining strength, while Asia–Pacific markets retreated, following Friday’s moves amid renewed US–China trade tensions. Investor optimism was restrained by geopolitical uncertainty and the ongoing US government shutdown.

US stocks rebound as Trump downplays China trade tensions

US stocks rebounded sharply on Monday after President Trump reassured investors that trade relations with China ‘will all be fine’, easing fears from last week’s tariff threats. The DOW rose +1.2%, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ gained +1.5% and +2.1% respectively, recovering part of the US$2 trillion in market value wiped out last week. The rebound came as Trump softened his threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, calming investor jitters after renewed trade war fears. Broadcom surged +9.6% after confirming its partnership with OpenAI, while Oracle rallied +5.6% and Qualcomm rose +5.1%. Despite the rebound, markets remain cautious as the US government shutdown enters its third week, delaying key data releases and leaving investors focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech for guidance on the economic outlook and monetary policy. In the rates market, the US two-year yield fell -7bp to 3.529%, while the US 10-year yield dropped -9bp to 4.059%.

European stocks edge higher as mining sector leads gains

European markets closed higher on Monday, with mining stocks driving gains as investors monitored renewed trade tensions between the US and China. The STOXX 600 increased +0.4%, with the UK’s FTSE 100 up +0.2%, Germany’s DAX rising +0.6% and France’s CAC 40 edging up +0.2% despite ongoing political uncertainty. Mining shares outperformed, with Endeavour Mining surging +11.3%, Fresnillo up +9.1%, and Anglo American climbing +4.1%, as metal prices rallied. Semiconductor maker ASML rose +3.7% after the Dutch government took control of Nexperia, a subsidiary of China’s Wingtech Technology, to safeguard chip supply chains in Europe. In France, newly reappointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu hastily unveiled a new cabinet, with Roland Lescure appointed finance minister, as the government worked to finalise budget plans ahead of President Macron’s deadline.

Asia–Pacific markets fall as US–China tensions escalate

Asia–Pacific markets declined on Monday—tracking Friday’s weakness in US and European markets—as renewed US–China trade tensions and tariff threats weighed on sentiment. China’s Shanghai Composite slipped -0.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped -1.5% amid fresh disputes between Washington and Beijing over export controls on rare earths. TSMC rose +7.8% after the world’s largest chipmaker posted strong third-quarter results, with demand for advanced AI and high-performance chips driving growth. South Korea’s Kospi fell -0.7%, weighed down by semiconductor losses. In Australia, the ASX 200 dropped -0.8% as all sectors except property declined, pressured by trade uncertainty and a cyberattack at Qantas (-1.6%). New Zealand’s NZX 50 fell -0.9%, led lower by Gentrack (-4.5%) and property stocks after an equity raise announcement from Precinct Properties.​​​​​​​

Commodities rise

WTI crude rose +1.5% to US$59.80/bbl, gold gained +2.1% to US$2,404/oz, and iron ore edged up +0.8% to US$105.74/MT.