Ceasefire Hopes Resurrected

Global markets edged higher on Monday in thin trading as tentative ceasefire talks between the US–Iran steadied sentiment, though gains remained measured amid ongoing geopolitical risk and elevated oil prices. Wall Street led modest advances as investors reacted to a stronger March jobs report released over the Good Friday holiday. European markets were closed for Easter, alongside Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong, while China and Taiwan were closed for the Qingming Festival.

Ceasefire hopes steady Wall Street

US equities edged higher on Monday as tentative ceasefire discussions between the US–Iran tempered geopolitical risk, though gains remained measured amid ongoing uncertainty. The DOW and S&P 500 gained +0.3%, while the NASDAQ advanced +0.4%, as markets stabilised following last week’s strong rebound. Sentiment was supported by reports of a potential 45-day ceasefire framework and a broader plan to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though progress remained uncertain ahead of a key deadline. President Trump maintained a hardline stance, warning of strikes on Iranian infrastructure if the Strait is not reopened, while signalling some restraint in avoiding further escalation. Oil prices remained elevated and volatile, holding above US$110/bbl amid ongoing attacks on regional energy infrastructure and signs of supply disruptions. Tesla (-3.7%) remained under pressure after first-quarter deliveries missed expectations on Thursday. Macroeconomic data also supported sentiment, with investors getting their first chance to react after the Good Friday holiday to a stronger-than-expected March jobs report, which showed payrolls rising by 178,000 and unemployment falling to 4.3%. Investors are now looking ahead to upcoming inflation data and earnings releases on Friday. The US two-year yield fell -0.4 to 3.848% and the 10-year yield lost -1bp to 4.335%.

Europe closed for Easter

European markets remained closed on Monday, with last Thursday’s session marked by volatility as escalation fears in the Iran conflict intensified. Sentiment was also pressured by reports the Trump administration is preparing tariffs on pharmaceutical companies, adding to policy uncertainty. Shell (+2.9%) was in focus following reports it is in talks with Venezuela to develop offshore gas projects.

Asia-Pacific mixed amid holiday-thinned trading

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Monday, with several key markets closed for holidays as investors monitored developments in the Middle East conflict. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose +0.5%, as the yen hovered near 160 per dollar, prompting warnings from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama that authorities stand ready to act against speculative currency moves. South Korea’s KOSPI gained +1.4%, supported by Samsung Electronics (+3.8%) ahead of first-quarter earnings guidance later this week. Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong were closed for Easter, while mainland China and Taiwan were closed for the Qingming Festival.

Oil rises again

WTI Crude gained +0.9% to US$112.48/bbl, Brent Crude rose +0.7% to US$109.81/bbl, and Gold fell -0.7% to US$4,653.49/oz.